Under the US Constitution, the police are required to knock and announce themselves, unless there is some kind of "exigency," like they reasonably believe that evidence will be destroyed. There would be no reason for them to break the door down just to arrest you. Only an attorney practicing in your state, or in your county really, can answer your other questions because these things vary from location to location. There is a good chance they will come get you, but if they are underfunded and overworked, they may just wait until you turn up. Only an attorney in your area can tell you what penalties on the average people in your area are getting for comparable violations. It would be worth your while to consult with an attorney so you know what you are facing before you decide whether to turn yourself in or take a vacation in Paraguay.