Taxing Matters
Overtaxed Member
You didn't strike a nerve. But your assertion that the "only" Trump could lose is by being kicked off the ballot is not correct. It's simply partisan thinking. That's what I was getting at. As I said, there is nearly a year left to go and that's a long time in politics. One event or incident in that year may change the politics for upcoming elections that, before the event ever happend, no one would have seen coming. Trump has to be careful what he says and does to avoid the gaffes that he is prone to make. That's one reason he side stepped the Republican party debates. The less he says the less rope he gives to those seeking to hang him.
I agree with cbg's husband's take that the Court will likely find some narrow ground to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court's decision. The Court, and especially Chief Justice Roberts, are very aware of the political effects of what they decide. Whatever they do someone will accuse them of being political, but the Court's reputation will probably fare better if they just let the voters decide this one. That's one of the reasons why the Court decided not to expedite the case challenging his claim to immunity in another. Letting the case go through the Court of Appeals first, as is done with nearly every other case, will allow the Court to at least avoid charges of favoritism. If the legal process is let to run its normal course there will be less opportunity to assail the Court's impartiality.
As things stand now, I don't see Trump winning a general election without a much stronger appeal to moderate voters, particularly in swing states. I can see he recognizes it; he's moderated his stance on abortions, for example, knowing that taking the hard right position will cost him moderate voters. Can he balance the need to get moderate voters without turning off his MAGA base? That's going to be a tough needle for him to thread. Probably the single most important factor come election day is how the economy is doing. If it continues to defy the predictions of economists of a recession that will go a long way to helping Biden. Voters are less likely to want a change when things are going well.
I can't predict the outcome of the election at this stage and I'm not going to try. We haven't even had the first Republican primaries to test just how strong Trump's opponents might be. We also have a lot of time in which something may happen that changes the entire race.