As for YOUR question, the issue is whether the health plan is established under the business. Without spending any time researching code or regs on the matter, any COBRA policy is by definition not going to be established under the business of the taxpayer. The fact that you're getting people with differing opinions should tell you something.
Yes, that is that the core of the issue. Remember, everyone I have talked to in-person are experienced professionals. The disagreement comes down to whether or not they believe the true spirit of that law centers around subsidization or if the group plan cannot be established by another company even though I am the name of the insured regardless of subsidization.
Responses generally have fallen into the following camps:
1. The spirit of the law is what matters. And the spirit is around subsidization (and there are IRS memos to support that position). There is a link to said memo above...
2. The spirit (and memos) don't mean squat. Subsidization does not matter either. If another company is involved in any way, you cannot take the deduction. Period.
and lastly.....which is the one I tend to agree the most with....
3. Take the deduction. The chances of you being challenged on it are slim.....And if you are challenged, you have at least a 50% (likely greater) chance to win on the merits. It is not as if you are hiding income that could get you in big-time trouble. If you are challenged, make your case. If you lose, pay the tax --- there likely won't be any fees or interest due to an ineligible deduction (especially one in such a gray area) and you certainly aren't going to jail over $9,500.
Even in this thread, there are people in camps 1 & 2, which reinforces #3 probably being the best course of action.